Why cryptocurrencies are like bubbles
commentTesla and Bitcoin: The Tescoin Bubble is here
Bubbles in the capital markets only get their name afterwards. Nobody knew what subprime was before the market started to collapse in 2007 (please contact banks in Düsseldorf for further information). And that dotcom would become a bubble also only really became apparent when it was already too late for many investors to exit the Neuer Markt. The mother of all crashes, Black Thursday of 1929, which only arrived on the Berlin Stock Exchange on Friday and coined the term “Black Friday” in this country, was initially just a setback on the US stock market. Only after a certain time did it become apparent that the party was over on that day.
The capital market is currently discussing intensively whether it could have already inflated into a bubble, especially in the case of stocks. The discussion alone could counteract this, because bubbles usually burst for unpredictable reasons and are not hedged by hedging transactions. But should it come to a bubble and burst, it has had a name since Monday: Tescoin-Bubble.
Because this Monday came together what goes together in terms of overvaluation: Tesla shares and Bitcoin. Both have an extremely strong price increase behind them, the Bitcoin was traded at over $ 43,000 today.
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The share of the electric car pioneer is considered to be massively overvalued and whether the crypto asset Bitcoin has any value at all is a matter of dispute. There is no central bank behind Bitcoin, which is why the cryptocurrency is popular with many who believe in the collapse of the monetary system and for whom gold is not technology-savvy enough. But without a central bank, a Bitcoin is only worth as much as the next buyer is willing to pay. That's why it's a pretty risky bet as a store of value. If many want to take profits at once, then the price is likely to collapse. And that brings us back to Tesla.
Just a marketing ploy?
The company announced on Monday that it had invested around $ 1.5 billion in Bitcoin. It also plans to start accepting Bitcoin payments for its cars and other products soon. Before everyone freaks out: As long as the prices for the cars and other products are shown in dollars and euros and can be transferred to Bitcoin with the current exchange rate, that's just a nice marketing trick. Only if the company fixed the price of a vehicle in Bitcoin could it be a game changer for crypto assets. Then it would be time to sell Tesla shares at the latest. Who wants to invest their money in a company whose calculation base is as volatile as the currency of a crisis-ridden emerging market?
Tesla boss Elon Musk has, you have to give him that, definitely shown chutzpah. It remains to be seen, however, whether the US securities regulator can be overridden as easily as the German planning law in the Grünheide affair. Because Musk tweeted a week ago that Bitcoin was "on the cusp" of being accepted by investors. If the Securities and Exchange Commission takes the young pack of young people who gambled with Gamestop shares to the chest, then they should examine Musk's Bitcoin statement even more. The question is whether he either tweeted up the price after Tesla bought it - or whether the company didn't take ad hoc duties seriously.
But no matter how the SEC acts, investors shouldn't jump on the hype now. Yes, Bitcoin can go up further, but the risk of a crash just keeps increasing. The same applies to the hot Tesla share. It is obviously a sustainable company that builds good cars. But the price is already way ahead of the share. Anyone who owns one of the two assets can take profits - before everyone has the idea.
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